I was wondering if you could look over my craps system I just made up and tell me what you think. Keep in mind that I am new to this game and have only played it in a casino one time. Also keep in mind that I don’t have a lot of money so if the bets seem ridiculously low that is why.
Well anyway, on the come out roll I make a NO 4 bet for 21 dollars (1 of which is the vig), and a 3 dollar bet on the hard four, and a 1 dollar bet on the 11 and a 5 dollar bet on the no pass line.
After the first roll I take everything down except the no pass. I do this to protect against the seven on the first roll. At the second roll the odds are in my favor since I just need to get a 7 before the point. If on the first roll I get a 7 I end up breaking even, and I make a profit on the 11, 3, and I think the 2. The only way I lose anything significant on the first roll is if I roll a soft 4, but then I lose 20 dollars. If I get a hard four I break about even since I made a 3 dollar bet on the hard four.
I made a little money at this when I tried it out, the only Slot Online problem was occasionally I would hit the soft 4 on the come out and lose 20 but I would get it back eventually. So what do you think? Was it a fluke that I won anything or does it make mathematical sense? Please let me know what you think?
The Guru replies:
I must commend you. Your approach shows maturity and insight for a beginner. In fact, this method is about as good as some other systems that are being foisted off on the public.
If it were me, I wouldn’t bet the 11 since this is costing you 20% vig and your wins on the 3 will cancel out the losses on the 11. That only leaves the 7 to worry about, and the 2 will off set one of the combinations which make up the 7 leaving only 5 combinations to extract the house vig on the come out (which will be about 13.9%).
Also, $3.00 is a lot of potential vig to pay for a combination that is only going to show 2.7% of the time. But, if hard fours are hitting, it could be worth it. Another thing you might consider is laying the 10 if the fours are hitting or even a 5 or 9. In fact it has been shown by tests that in the long run the 5 or 9 is a better lay than the 4 or 10 because you get the same return with 3/4 of the outlay. Also, I like the fact that you are laying enough to make money on the come out 7’s.
For this method to work, you must stay on a cold table which I’m sure you know. If things start to heat up and the shooter starts making his points, don’t dilly dally, find another table!
Generally, hedge systems don’t perform too well, but, as I said, if you can stay on a cold table this one has a chance.
Can a don’t pass hedge style betting be profitable in the long run on a craps table? For instance, a $6 don’t pass, placed with a bet on the number after a point is established. A 4-5-9-10 get a $5 bet placed on it, and a 6-8 gets a $6 placed. Is this a profitable strategy?
About your website and notes on gambling. I have to agree. I play in the upper Midwest where there are riverboats and Indian Casinos around, and players have referred to me as bringing a craps table alive in the manner you state on your site. Actually another question from here….
What is the exact ruling on a hardway bet? For instance, the hard 8 (4,4) is listed as a 10-1 payout, but they only pay 9-1, considering they leave your bet up. I assume their position is that once any 8 comes up, hard or otherwise, the bet is gone?
The Guru replies:
First to clear up your question about the hardway bet. A hard 8 pays 9 to 1. On the layout it probably says 10 for 1 which is the same thing. In other words if you bet $1 on the hard 8 and it hits you get paid $9 and your bet stays up. But if you take the bet down after it hits, which is your prerogative, you get $10. So you were paid 10 for 1.
The don’t pass hedge method you mentioned would be great if you weren’t fighting the 7 and the 11 on the come out. This puts the odds at 22% against you. On a 5 and 9 you have a positive expectation of profit of 4%. This puts the odds 18% against you. No one can beat those odds. Of course it is slightly better on the 4 and 10 but worse on the 6 and 8. This is why I advocate lay bets because you don’t have to worry about the 7 or 11 knocking your bet down and the commission is only 5% as opposed to 18% or more.
The only time it is a good play to place the number after a don’t bet has been established is if you are playing the don’t pass or don’t come anyhow. Perhaps you are trying to take advantage of what you thought was a cold cycle or you were anticipating a short don’t pass roll so you make a don’t bet and are successful in getting it behind a number. Then, the shooter doesn’t immediately seven out as you expected but continues to roll. This is the time to make the place bet to protect the don’t bet. You are now sitting in the cat bird seat where you can’t lose. You are either going to make a small profit if he hits your number or if he sevens out except on the 6 and 8 where you will break even. Then, if you feel the 7 coming and he still hasn’t hit your number, you can turn the place bet off or take it down and still have a crack at winning the don’t bet.